Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza But Struggles Regarding Putin Over Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been greatly exaggerated, it seems.
Just days after Donald Trump announced he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, too.
"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on Tuesday afternoon. "I aim to avoid a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
- Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after arrangement for Putin talks shelved
- Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results
The on-again, off-again summit is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of increased attention for the American leader after he orchestrated a truce and hostage release deal in Gaza.
While making remarks in Egypt recently to commemorate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.
"It is essential to get Russia done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Middle East success achievable for Witkoff and his team may be challenging to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.
Less Leverage
According to Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a agreement was Israel's move to attack representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that infuriated America's Arab allies but gave the president leverage to compel Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu into making a deal.
Trump gained from a long record of supporting the Israeli state since his first term, encompassing his decision to relocate the US embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The US president, in fact, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that gave him unique influence over the nation's head.
Add in the president's connections in politics and business to influential Arab nations in the region, and he had a wealth of negotiating strength to force an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. Over the past nine months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm the Russian president and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.
At the same time, the president has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the country - only to then retreat in the wake of worried European partners who caution a defeat of Ukraine could destabilise the entire region.
Trump often boasts about his ability to sit down and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be exploiting Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.
During the summer, Russia's leader agreed to a high-level meeting in Alaska just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package backed by GOP senators. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.
Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the potential summit in Budapest.
The following day, the president hosted Ukraine's leader at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.
Trump maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for Ukraine – for Ukraine – the Russian side almost automatically became less interested in negotiations," he stated.
Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of sending missiles to Ukraine to planning a Budapest summit with Russia's leader and privately urging Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even territory Russia has been failed to capture.
He has finally decided on advocating a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.
During his election campaign last year, Trump promised that he could resolve the conflict in Ukraine in a very short time. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of finding a peace plan when both parties wants, or can afford to, cease hostilities.