🔗 Share this article

The polls are open for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again emerge victorious, although analysts believe the party stands little chance of joining the future coalition.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to win between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist D66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its seat tally to between 18 to 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, liberal-conservative VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Of the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – as many as 16 may gain entry to the legislature.

This high degree of division ensures that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the country if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is shut out of government. But, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a parliamentary majority is a democratic outcome.

Although the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, political observers indicate that following the most extreme government in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a inclusive coalition headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6.30am GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after the polls close.

After the vote, an official negotiator will test potential governing alliances that could command a majority in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.